GW11 BRIEFING · THE ASSISTANT MANAGER
Generated 11/9/2026, 3:02:39 PM
The Verdict
HIGH CONFIDENCE- Captain:
- Haaland
- Vice:
- Palmer
- Formation:
- 3-4-3
- Transfer:
- Hold, two free transfers banked.
- Bench order:
- 1. Muharemović 2. Mbeumo 3. Thomas GK: Davies
- Confidence:
- HIGH
Captain Call
CLEARCaptain
Haaland
Vice
Palmer
Nearly Palmer instead: Haaland projects 1.3 projected points more this week.
The Chairman's Shortlist
Maeda @ ITFC leads.
1 points off The Italian Job!
Before You Lock It In
Still Live
- • Mbeumo away at Liverpool is a tough draw; he drops to bench in the shape change and that is the right call.
- • Palmer and Rogers both in middling form at home to Leeds, Chelsea at 5/6 to win, but neither is firing consistently.
- • Barry away at Brentford is the toughest fixture in the starting XI, Brentford are favourites at 11/10.
Check Before Deadline
- Confirm Thomas fitness before deadline, fifty percent doubt affects bench auto-sub chain.
- Confirm Haaland on the team sheet, nailed by the data, but always worth a final check at a price of £15.8m.
The Room
Jimmy MacLeod
Man City at home to Fulham, strong favourites at 2/5, the book says give Haaland the armband and don't overthink the rest.
Luca Ferretti
The shape moves to 3-4-3, Jackson comes in, this is correct. You cannot leave a player projecting over five points on the bench when the structure supports him.
Klaus Brandt
The model says hold the transfers and accumulate the bank. Two free transfers sitting there is like money in the account earning interest, yes?
Dr. Rachel Okafor
Thomas is flagged at fifty percent. The file says forty-five projected minutes. He is third sub, which is exactly where a fifty-percent doubt belongs, but we confirm before deadline.
MacLeod, Ferretti and Brandt backed the hold and the shape change; Okafor flagged Thomas at fifty percent and pushed for bench clarity.
Worth Watching
Jimmy MacLeod
I've been tracking names across the next five gameweeks, not just this one, the fixtures and the form have to line up together.
£5.3m · 9.2% owned
Brighton away at Hull City this week, then a run that the numbers like across GW11 to GW15, 21.55 projected points over five gameweeks. At 9.2% ownership, this is differential cover worth having in mind if a defensive slot opens up.
£7.2m · 5.5% owned
Liverpool at home to Man Utd this week, 22.2 projected points across the five-gameweek horizon. The form is 6.5 and the ownership is barely 5.5%, that is where the differential value sits in this midfield bracket.
£9.3m · 25.0% owned
Liverpool at home to Man Utd, 23.37 projected points across five gameweeks, form of 7.0. If you ever need to move on from Barry or find forward cover, Isak is the name I've had in the book.
The Squad
3-5-2 · £103.0m
Behind the decision
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
GW11. The shape changes. The hold stands. Everything else is straightforward.
THE CALL
Shape shifts to 3-4-3, N.Jackson comes into the XI, Mbeumo drops to bench. Haaland gets the armband. We bank both free transfers.
Hold all chips this week. Next up: Triple Captain in GW16. Triple Captain: hold for GW16, 7.9 projected points (Haaland) against 6.86 projected points this week (Haaland). It expires after GW19.
What changes this call: FPL flagging Haaland at 50% or below before the deadline. Marked next week on: Haaland plays 60 minutes.
FORMATION
3-4-3, following Luca's shape.
Luca put it plainly: "Jackson projects over five points with Aston Villa at home to Sunderland. You cannot leave that on the bench when the structure supports him." He is right. The 3-5-2 we submitted is not our strongest eleven. The shape change costs nothing and gains a starter from a kind fixture. We move.
STARTING XI
Raya (away at Newcastle, FDR 3), Arsenal are strong favourites at 8/15. Clean sheet probability is real. Data reads him as a clear starter.
Van Hecke (at home to Ipswich Town, FDR 2), Spurs are strong favourites at 4/7. Flirting with the defensive contribution bonus on recent data. The data has him nailed.
Hill (at home to Nott'm Forest, FDR 3), Bournemouth are favourites at 10/11. Clean sheet chance is genuine. Data reads him as a clear starter.
De Cuyper (away at Hull City, FDR 2), Brighton are strong favourites at 4/9. Four assists this season alongside two goals. Good run of form.
Rogers (at home to Leeds, FDR 3), Chelsea are favourites at 5/6. Five goals this season, though his numbers suggest he may be running slightly ahead of his underlying output. Data has him nailed.
Palmer (at home to Leeds, FDR 3), Vice captain. Same fixture as Rogers. Three goals and four assists, with the underlying numbers suggesting more is coming.
Tavernier (at home to Nott'm Forest, FDR 3), Five goals this season, creativity in the numbers even if assists haven't arrived yet. Bournemouth favourites. Data reads him as nailed.
Groß (away at Hull City, FDR 2), Ten attacking returns this season between goals and assists, 3.0 xG and 2.2 xA. Brighton strong favourites at 4/9. MacLeod has not stopped mentioning the Hull fixture all week.
N.Jackson (at home to Sunderland, FDR 2), Aston Villa strong favourites at 8/11. Six goals and an assist this season. His goals have outpaced his xG of 3.5, which is worth noting, but the data reads him as a genuine starter and the fixture is kind.
Haaland (at home to Fulham, FDR 2), Captain. Man City strong favourites at 2/5. Nine goals this season. The armband goes here.
Barry (away at Brentford, FDR 4), The toughest fixture in the XI. Brentford are favourites at 11/10. Barry's shot volume is there, his xG of 7.3 against six goals tells you the chances are coming. This is a live risk. We carry it.
BENCH ORDER
1. Muharemović, first sub if anyone drops.
2. Mbeumo, shape change moves him to bench. Away at Liverpool, strong favourites at 8/11 against Man Utd. The fixture made this call simple.
3. Thomas, Rachel flagged him. Fifty percent doubt, projected forty-five minutes. He sits third. Confirm his status before deadline; if he is ruled out, bench cover becomes thin.
4. Davies (GK).
CAPTAIN
Haaland (C), projects 6.86 points this week, 1.25 points clear of the next candidate. Man City at home to Fulham, strong favourites at 2/5. Nine goals in ten games. This is a clear call, not a close one. The armband returns to him.
Palmer (VC), at home to Leeds, Chelsea favourites. Underlying numbers point toward returns even if the form line of 2.8 looks flat. Reasonable fallback.
WHY NOT THE OTHER MOVE?
The case for spending a transfer was straightforward: bring in form and fixtures rather than sit on the bank. The reason we held is equally straightforward. The squad is healthy, there is no clear upgrade available within budget, and banking a free transfer is not passivity, it is preparation. We said the same last week. The situation has not changed.